為了做成某事
In order to be successful in that business, you have to have great predictions.The Social Dilemma · 2020 — 第 2 / 14 章 · 2'37" · C1
人的行為被當成期貨賣：human futures
有人把廣告生意拆開講：廣告真正賣的是 sell certainty（出售確定性），要確定性就得靠預測，要預測就得靠資料。於是人的未來行為被打包成 human futures（人的行為期貨），連你在一張圖上看多久都被 monitored and recorded（被監控並記錄）。聊隱私和網際網路公司怎麼賺錢，這幾句直接能用。
發生了什麼
這是一段把商業模式拆開的講解，不是劇情。有人說，企業夢寐以求的是「投放廣告就一定成功」，所以這門生意賣的是 sell certainty（出售確定性）；要做成它，就得有精準預測，而預測的前提是大量資料。更狠的說法是 human futures（人的行為期貨）：像豬腩期貨、石油期貨一樣，人的未來行為被當成可交易的期貨，還是 at scale（大規模地）交易。講解還提到，你在哪張圖片上停了多久，都被 monitored and recorded（被監控並記錄）。聊隱私、聊網際網路公司怎麼賺錢時，這些詞都用得上。
這場戲看什麼
- 留意期貨類比如何落到人的行為
- 注意廣告、資料、預測的因果鏈
- 看被動語態怎樣隱去施動者
留意這幾個短語
sell certaintyimperativeprofiting off ofhuman futures
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此刻
本章短語
human futures
人的行為期貨contracts on future human behavior
有人把同一套市場詞套到人的行為上，說這個市場專做 human futures；隨後才拿豬腩、石油期貨作比，語氣冷靜得像在講課。
The app trades in human futures: your next click is the product.這個應用交易的是人類期貨：你的下一次點選就是商品。
本章還有
- sell certainty
出售確定性
- imperative
必須做到的事
- profiting off of
靠…牟利
- at scale
大規模地
- monitored and recorded
被監控並記錄
本章全部批註
32 句台詞裡標了 22 處
to 輕輕帶過，重音落到 successful
In order to be successful in that business, you have to have great predictions.靠…牟利
有人用 profiting off of 批評大科技公司：靠無休止追蹤所有人的行蹤來賺錢，語氣帶批判。
capitalism profiting off of the infinite tracking of everywhere everyone goes by large technology companies whose business model is to關係從句：whose 引導定語從句修飾 companies，說明其商業模式是…；先找先行詞再讀。
capitalism profiting off of the infinite tracking of everywhere everyone goes by large technology companies whose business model is to儘可能成功
make sure that advertisers are as successful as possible.重音落在 successful，兩個 as 都輕帶
make sure that advertisers are as successful as possible.專門交易某類東西
And it's a marketplace that trades exclusively in human futures.人的行為期貨
有人把同一套市場詞套到人的行為上，說這個市場專做 human futures；隨後才拿豬腩、石油期貨作比，語氣冷靜得像在講課。
And it's a marketplace that trades exclusively in human futures.交易豬腩期貨
Just like there are markets that trade in pork belly futures or oil futures.豬腩期貨——商品市場行話，財經語境用；日常聊天要解釋。
Just like there are markets that trade in pork belly futures or oil futures.大規模地
有人用 at scale 強調這種交易不是小打小鬧，而是覆蓋海量使用者、形成產業規模，語氣很重，像在做結論。
We now have markets that trade in human futures at scale,我想讓大家知道的是
What I want people to know is that everything they're doing online is being watched,被動進行：is being + 過去分詞，表示“正在被…”；這裡強調線上行為持續被看著。
What I want people to know is that everything they're doing online is being watched,被監控並記錄
有人用被動句說，線上日常裡的每個動作都被 monitored and recorded，語氣嚴肅，沒有起伏。
Every single action you take is carefully monitored and recorded.某事物是什麼樣子
Whether you're an introvert or an extrovert, or what kind of neuroses you have, what your personality type is like.無論你是A還是B
Whether you're an introvert or an extrovert, or what kind of neuroses you have, what your personality type is like.關於我們的更多資訊
They have more information about us than has ever been imagined in human history.比較從句：more...than 比較；than 後主語承接前文名詞，意為“比想像的多”。
They have more information about us than has ever been imagined in human history.不斷傾瀉（資料）
that we're just pouring out all the time is being fed into these systems that have almost no human supervision and that are making better and better and better and better predictions輸入到…裡
that we're just pouring out all the time is being fed into these systems that have almost no human supervision and that are making better and better and better and better predictions越來越好
that we're just pouring out all the time is being fed into these systems that have almost no human supervision and that are making better and better and better and better predictions連續幾個 better 層層加碼，語氣一步步推高
that we're just pouring out all the time is being fed into these systems that have almost no human supervision and that are making better and better and better and better predictions看懂「人的行為被當成期貨賣」
發音重點
- In order to — to 輕輕帶過，重音落到 successful
- as successful as — 重音落在 successful，兩個 as 都輕帶
- better and better — 連續幾個 better 層層加碼，語氣一步步推高
And it's a marketplace that trades exclusively in human futures.這是一個只交易人類期貨的市場。 把資料生意說成期貨市場，冷靜卻令人不安。
Every single action you take is carefully monitored and recorded.你採取的每一個動作都被仔細監控並記錄。 用被動句把日常動作變成被觀察的物件，壓迫感強。
They have more information about us than has ever been imagined in human history.他們掌握的關於我們的資訊，比人類歷史上想像過的還要多。 把日常資料積累拉到人類歷史尺度，衝擊力大。
They know when people are lonely.他們知道人們什麼時候孤獨。 短句把演算法洞察變成情緒監控，平靜得發冷。
關於這一章的問題
human futures 是什麼意思？
指人的行為期貨：把某人接下來會做什麼做成可以買賣的期貨合約，就像豬腩期貨、石油期貨。臺詞裡說這個市場只交易這一類東西。
「出售確定性」英語怎麼說？
sell certainty，臺詞裡就是 They sell certainty.（他們出售確定性）。說的是這門生意賣的核心是「投放了就會成功」的保證，廣告效果成了可出售的東西。
at scale 是「有規模」的意思嗎？
不是。at scale 是大規模地，強調量很大。臺詞裡說這類市場在大規模地交易人的行為期貨，不是零星幾筆。
unprecedented 在這裡是什麼意思？
史無前例，以前沒發生過。前面先講他們手裡的資訊比人類歷史上想像過的還多，再用這個詞收尾，等於說這種事沒有先例。
profiting off of 怎麼用？
靠…牟利，錢是從某件事或某些人身上賺來的。臺詞裡說這類資本主義靠無休止追蹤每個人去過的地方獲利，比單說「賺錢」更帶批評。
monitored and recorded 只是「被看著」嗎？
不只是看。是被監控並記錄，一邊盯著一邊留檔。臺詞說你在哪張圖片上停了多久，都被記下來。
監視資本主義：智慧陷阱 · 共 14 章
全部章節 →
下一章 · 第 3 章dial up the ads擰旋鈕調高廣告投放
第 1 章rakes in money受訪者拆解注意力生意
正在看 · 第 2 章human futures人的行為被當成期貨賣
第 3 章dial up the ads擰旋鈕調高廣告投放
第 4 章fall prey to拼趣總裁也放不下手機
第 5 章let the record show晚飯桌上的手機賭約
第 6 章conflate發言者拆解點贊焦慮
第 7 章a mind of its own後臺演算法密謀拉回使用者
第 8 章reckon with拿維基百科比喻資訊流
第 9 章tilt the floor研究稱假新聞快六倍
第 10 章weaponizing social media平臺成了說服武器
第 11 章digital Frankensteins訪談裡反駁技術威脅論
第 12 章willful ignorance聊文明會不會完蛋
第 13 章put the genie back in the bottle受訪者呼籲監管巨頭
第 14 章set in stone科技從業者反思技術走偏看到第 2 / 14 章 · 後面還有約 35 分鐘