为了做成某事
In order to be successful in that business, you have to have great predictions.The Social Dilemma · 2020 — 第 2 / 14 章 · 2'37" · C1
人的行为被当成期货卖：human futures
有人把广告生意拆开讲：广告真正卖的是 sell certainty（出售确定性），要确定性就得靠预测，要预测就得靠数据。于是人的未来行为被打包成 human futures（人的行为期货），连你在一张图上看多久都被 monitored and recorded（被监控并记录）。聊隐私和互联网公司怎么赚钱，这几句直接能用。
发生了什么
这是一段把商业模式拆开的讲解，不是剧情。有人说，企业梦寐以求的是「投放广告就一定成功」，所以这门生意卖的是 sell certainty（出售确定性）；要做成它，就得有精准预测，而预测的前提是大量数据。更狠的说法是 human futures（人的行为期货）：像猪腩期货、石油期货一样，人的未来行为被当成可交易的期货，还是 at scale（大规模地）交易。讲解还提到，你在哪张图片上停了多久，都被 monitored and recorded（被监控并记录）。聊隐私、聊互联网公司怎么赚钱时，这些词都用得上。
这场戏看什么
- 留意期货类比如何落到人的行为
- 注意广告、数据、预测的因果链
- 看被动语态怎样隐去施动者
留意这几个短语
sell certaintyimperativeprofiting off ofhuman futures
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本章短语
human futures
人的行为期货contracts on future human behavior
有人把同一套市场词套到人的行为上，说这个市场专做 human futures；随后才拿猪腩、石油期货作比，语气冷静得像在讲课。
The app trades in human futures: your next click is the product.这个应用交易的是人类期货：你的下一次点击就是商品。
本章还有
- sell certainty
出售确定性
- imperative
必须做到的事
- profiting off of
靠…牟利
- at scale
大规模地
- monitored and recorded
被监控并记录
本章全部批注
32 句台词里标了 22 处
to 轻轻带过，重音落到 successful
In order to be successful in that business, you have to have great predictions.靠…牟利
有人用 profiting off of 批评大科技公司：靠无休止追踪所有人的行踪来赚钱，语气带批判。
capitalism profiting off of the infinite tracking of everywhere everyone goes by large technology companies whose business model is to关系从句：whose 引导定语从句修饰 companies，说明其商业模式是…；先找先行词再读。
capitalism profiting off of the infinite tracking of everywhere everyone goes by large technology companies whose business model is to尽可能成功
make sure that advertisers are as successful as possible.重音落在 successful，两个 as 都轻带
make sure that advertisers are as successful as possible.专门交易某类东西
And it's a marketplace that trades exclusively in human futures.人的行为期货
有人把同一套市场词套到人的行为上，说这个市场专做 human futures；随后才拿猪腩、石油期货作比，语气冷静得像在讲课。
And it's a marketplace that trades exclusively in human futures.交易猪腩期货
Just like there are markets that trade in pork belly futures or oil futures.猪腩期货——商品市场行话，财经语境用；日常聊天要解释。
Just like there are markets that trade in pork belly futures or oil futures.大规模地
有人用 at scale 强调这种交易不是小打小闹，而是覆盖海量用户、形成产业规模，语气很重，像在做结论。
We now have markets that trade in human futures at scale,我想让大家知道的是
What I want people to know is that everything they're doing online is being watched,被动进行：is being + 过去分词，表示“正在被…”；这里强调线上行为持续被看着。
What I want people to know is that everything they're doing online is being watched,被监控并记录
有人用被动句说，线上日常里的每个动作都被 monitored and recorded，语气严肃，没有起伏。
Every single action you take is carefully monitored and recorded.某事物是什么样子
Whether you're an introvert or an extrovert, or what kind of neuroses you have, what your personality type is like.无论你是A还是B
Whether you're an introvert or an extrovert, or what kind of neuroses you have, what your personality type is like.关于我们的更多信息
They have more information about us than has ever been imagined in human history.比较从句：more...than 比较；than 后主语承接前文名词，意为“比想象的多”。
They have more information about us than has ever been imagined in human history.不断倾泻（数据）
that we're just pouring out all the time is being fed into these systems that have almost no human supervision and that are making better and better and better and better predictions输入到…里
that we're just pouring out all the time is being fed into these systems that have almost no human supervision and that are making better and better and better and better predictions越来越好
that we're just pouring out all the time is being fed into these systems that have almost no human supervision and that are making better and better and better and better predictions连续几个 better 层层加码，语气一步步推高
that we're just pouring out all the time is being fed into these systems that have almost no human supervision and that are making better and better and better and better predictions看懂「人的行为被当成期货卖」
发音重点
- In order to — to 轻轻带过，重音落到 successful
- as successful as — 重音落在 successful，两个 as 都轻带
- better and better — 连续几个 better 层层加码，语气一步步推高
And it's a marketplace that trades exclusively in human futures.这是一个只交易人类期货的市场。 把数据生意说成期货市场，冷静却令人不安。
Every single action you take is carefully monitored and recorded.你采取的每一个动作都被仔细监控并记录。 用被动句把日常动作变成被观察的对象，压迫感强。
They have more information about us than has ever been imagined in human history.他们掌握的关于我们的信息，比人类历史上想象过的还要多。 把日常数据积累拉到人类历史尺度，冲击力大。
They know when people are lonely.他们知道人们什么时候孤独。 短句把算法洞察变成情绪监控，平静得发冷。
关于这一章的问题
human futures 是什么意思？
指人的行为期货：把某人接下来会做什么做成可以买卖的期货合约，就像猪腩期货、石油期货。台词里说这个市场只交易这一类东西。
「出售确定性」英语怎么说？
sell certainty，台词里就是 They sell certainty.（他们出售确定性）。说的是这门生意卖的核心是「投放了就会成功」的保证，广告效果成了可出售的东西。
at scale 是「有规模」的意思吗？
不是。at scale 是大规模地，强调量很大。台词里说这类市场在大规模地交易人的行为期货，不是零星几笔。
unprecedented 在这里是什么意思？
史无前例，以前没发生过。前面先讲他们手里的信息比人类历史上想象过的还多，再用这个词收尾，等于说这种事没有先例。
profiting off of 怎么用？
靠…牟利，钱是从某件事或某些人身上赚来的。台词里说这类资本主义靠无休止追踪每个人去过的地方获利，比单说「赚钱」更带批评。
monitored and recorded 只是「被看着」吗？
不只是看。是被监控并记录，一边盯着一边留档。台词说你在哪张图片上停了多久，都被记下来。
监视资本主义：智能陷阱 · 共 14 章
全部章节 →
下一章 · 第 3 章dial up the ads拧旋钮调高广告投放
第 1 章rakes in money受访者拆解注意力生意
正在看 · 第 2 章human futures人的行为被当成期货卖
第 3 章dial up the ads拧旋钮调高广告投放
第 4 章fall prey to拼趣总裁也放不下手机
第 5 章let the record show晚饭桌上的手机赌约
第 6 章conflate发言者拆解点赞焦虑
第 7 章a mind of its own后台算法密谋拉回用户
第 8 章reckon with拿维基百科比喻信息流
第 9 章tilt the floor研究称假新闻快六倍
第 10 章weaponizing social media平台成了说服武器
第 11 章digital Frankensteins访谈里反驳技术威胁论
第 12 章willful ignorance聊文明会不会完蛋
第 13 章put the genie back in the bottle受访者呼吁监管巨头
第 14 章set in stone科技从业者反思技术走偏看到第 2 / 14 章 · 后面还有约 35 分钟